US dollar weakens, LME outperforms SHFE for metals, with alumina and lithium carbonate, coking coal and coke leading the declines, while polysilicon rises over 1% [SMM Midday Review]

》[Live] Analysis of Macroeconomics, Power, Infrastructure, Real Estate, and PV Markets; Outlook on Copper and Aluminum Prices; Insights into Cable Technology Trends

SMM, May 23:

Metal Market:

As of the midday close, domestic base metals generally fell. SHFE tin dropped by 0.62%, SHFE zinc remained flat at 22,250 yuan/mt, SHFE aluminum fell by 0.12%, and SHFE nickel dropped by 0.66%. SHFE lead rose by 0.3%, and SHFE copper fell by 0.1%.

In addition, alumina fell by 1.98%, lithium carbonate dropped by 1.65%, silicon metal declined by 0.7%, and polysilicon rose by 1.11%.

Most ferrous metals series fell, with iron ore dropping by 0.69% and HRC falling by 0.47%. Stainless steel rose slightly, while rebar fell by 0.36%. In terms of coking coal and coke: coking coal fell by 2.81%, and coke dropped by 1.28%.

In the overseas metal market, as of 11:43 a.m., LME metals rose across the board. LME copper rose by 0.31%, LME aluminum increased by 0.37%, LME zinc gained 0.54%, LME nickel rose by 0.33%, LME tin increased by 0.38%, and LME lead rose by 0.51%.

In precious metals, as of 11:43 a.m., COMEX gold rose by 0.09%, and COMEX silver increased by 0.17%. Domestically, SHFE gold fell by 0.77%, and SHFE silver dropped by 0.52%.

As of the midday close, the most-traded contract for the European container shipping index rose by 3.02%, closing at 2,231.2 points.

As of 11:43 a.m. on May 23, the midday futures market movements for some contracts were as follows:

》SMM Metal Spot Prices on May 23

Spot and Fundamentals

Copper: In terms of inventory, according to SMM's domestic aluminum ingot inventory data, domestic aluminum ingot inventory stood at 557,000 mt on May 23, a destocking of 28,000 mt from Monday. In the short term, the lower arrival of goods in east China is conducive to the rise in premiums and discounts. Follow-up attention should be paid to changes in demand... 》Click for details

Macro Front

Domestic Aspect:

[Ministry of Commerce: Online Sales of Digital Products Grew by 8.4% from January to April; Sales of Smart Robots and Smart Home Systems Rose by 87.6% and 16%, Respectively]The head of the E-commerce Department of the Ministry of Commerce introduced the development of China's e-commerce from January to April 2025. Digital consumption growth accelerated. According to monitoring by the Ministry of Commerce's big data, online sales of digital products increased by 8.4%, with sales of smart robots and smart home systems rising by 87.6% and 16%, respectively. Products under the trade-in policy grew rapidly, with online sales of 15 categories of home appliances and digital products increasing by 11.5%, among which three expanded categories of digital products, including mobile phones, grew by 18.5%. Service consumption led the growth. Driven by factors such as policy support, supply optimization, and holiday economy, the growth of key monitored online service consumption reached 12.1%, with online entertainment and online tourism increasing by 31.9% and 25.4%, respectively.

[The central bank injected a net 36 billion yuan into the open market]The central bank conducted 142.5 billion yuan of 7-day reverse repo operations today, with an operating interest rate of 1.40%, unchanged from the previous rate. As 106.5 billion yuan of 7-day reverse repos matured today, a net injection of 36 billion yuan was achieved.

►On May 23, the central parity rate of the RMB against the US dollar in the interbank foreign exchange market was 7.1919 yuan per US dollar.

US dollar:

As of 11:43, the US dollar index fell by 0.28% to 99.66. Concerns over the deterioration of the US fiscal outlook intensified, leading to a weakening of the US dollar. Tim Baker, an analyst at Deutsche Bank, believes that the market's reaction to rising US fiscal uncertainty may harm the US dollar more than US Treasuries. He stated that when bond prices fall and yields rise sufficiently, domestic investors will buy bonds. However, foreign investors deterred by the expanding US budget deficit will continue to sell the US dollar. Baker said, "As US domestic investors rotate out of the stock market, US Treasuries may eventually receive some support, but the withdrawal of foreign investors will still be negative for the US dollar." (Huitong Finance)

Other currencies:

Japan's core inflation surged to 3.5% YoY in April, the fastest pace in two years, sparking market expectations of a rate hike by the Bank of Japan. Meanwhile, the persistent expansion of the fiscal deficit has raised concerns among investors about the sustainability of government debt, leading to a surge in yields on 20-year and longer-dated Japanese government bonds to historic highs this week, challenging the market's ability to absorb long-term debt. (Huitong Finance)

Macro:

Today, data including the revised quarter-on-quarter seasonally adjusted GDP growth rate for Germany in Q1, the revised year-on-year non-seasonally adjusted GDP growth rate for Germany in Q1, the month-on-month seasonally adjusted retail sales growth rate for the UK in April, the month-on-month seasonally adjusted core retail sales growth rate for the UK in April, the revised month-on-month building permits growth rate for the US in April, the revised annualized total building permits for the US in April, the month-on-month retail sales growth rate for Canada in March, the month-on-month core retail sales growth rate for Canada in March, and the annualized total seasonally adjusted new home sales for the US in April will be released. In addition, it is worth noting that: John C. Williams, permanent voting member of the FOMC and President of the Federal Reserve Bank of New York, will deliver a keynote speech at a seminar on monetary policy implementation; James Bullard, 2025 FOMC voting member and President of the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, and Esther George, President of the Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City, will participate in a fireside chat in Northwest Arkansas hosted by the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis to discuss the economy and monetary policy.

Crude oil:

As of 11:43, crude oil futures all declined, with US crude oil falling by 0.62% and Brent crude oil falling by 0.57%. OPEC may further increase crude oil production, putting pressure on oil prices.

It is reported that the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) and its allies, forming the OPEC+ alliance, are discussing whether to significantly increase production again at their meeting on June 1. Delegates attending the meeting said that a 411,000 barrel-per-day increase in July is one of the options under discussion, but no final agreement has been reached.

The significant accumulation of US crude oil is also putting pressure on oil prices. According to data from The Tank Tiger, a storage broker, US crude oil storage demand has surged in recent weeks to levels comparable to those during the COVID-19 pandemic, as traders prepare for a significant increase in supply from OPEC and its allies in the coming months. On Friday, the market will focus on data from Baker Hughes on the number of US oil and natural gas drilling rigs, which is seen as an indicator of future supply trends. (Webstock Inc.)

Spot Market Overview:

►SMM: Easing of Sino-US Tariffs, Fundamentals Supporting the Market, Copper and Aluminum Prices Expected to Fluctuate Upward [SMM Cable Conference]

►Inventory Hits Recent Low, Suppliers Actively Refuse to Budge on Prices [SMM South China Spot Copper]

►[SMM Nickel Midday Review] Nickel Prices Continue to Weaken on May 23, PBOC Conducts 500 Billion Yuan MLF Operation

►Silver Bottoms Out and Rebounds, Market Focuses on Inflation and Geopolitical Risk Aversion [SMM Weekly Silver Market Review]

Midday reviews of other metal spot prices will be updated later. Please refresh to view~